Numb3rs Episode Makes Tricky Use of Taleb’s "Black Swan"
If you recently watched the episode of Numb3rs titled, Black Swan, you know the story 
featured events that may have seemed random. (Don Eppes’ instincts helped catch a guy who just happened to be parked in front of a warehouse that was a secret meth lab).
The Numb3rs team was only able to solve the case once they realized that events which seemed to be random were actually not so random.
At some point, Charlie Eppes explains the theory of the black swan, and in this explanation, we find that when we look for generalities in events, we are fooled. After listening to this explanation, I realized that our Numb3rs writers have been at it again, messing with our brains.
During my weekly trip to the bookstore, I saw the book, titled, The Black Swan: The Impact of The Highly Improbable. In this book, the author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb tells us that “really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable”. Because we seek out generalities in the world, our perceptions are wrong.
Activities such as predicting unexplainable things makes us feel good, but in the scheme of things, do not help explain why things happen. I think there are events that can be explained, however, I find Taleb’s position challenging and correct in some instances.
Do you agree or disagree with Taleb, and did you enjoy the irony of his position being presented in the Black Swan episode of Numb3rs?
If you’d like to get more info about the book, you can visit Taleb’s site at Amazon. I’m secretly trying to wait for the paperback.
Info & image via Amazon.com
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POSTED IN: David Krumholtz, FBI Drama Programs, Numb3rs, Rob Morrow, Thoughts
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